12/17/2023 0 Comments Shift technologies forecast![]() As we recently wrote, generative AI and other foundational models change the AI game by taking assistive technology to a new level, reducing application development time, and bringing powerful capabilities to nontechnical users. Interest in the topic (as gauged by news and internet searches) increased threefold from 2021 to 2022. Building upon existing technologies such as applied AI and industrializing machine learning, generative AI has high potential and applicability across most industries. This new entrant represents the next frontier of AI. For future of space technologies investments, we used research from McKinsey’s Aerospace & Defense Practice. This year, we included only closed deals in PitchBook data, which revised downward the investment numbers for 2018–22. We adjusted the definitions of electrification and renewables (previously called future of clean energy) and climate technologies beyond electrification and renewables (previously called future of sustainable consumption).The generative-AI trend was added since last year’s study.In addition, we updated the selection and definition of trends from last year’s study to reflect the evolution of technology trends: Data is drawn primarily from English-speaking countries. Number of job postings is sourced from McKinsey’s proprietary Organizational Data Platform, which stores licensed, de-identified data on professional profiles and job postings. Data on private-market and public-market capital raises are sourced from PitchBook. Data on search engine queries are sourced from Google Trends. Data on news publications are sourced from Factiva. Data on research publications are sourced from the Lens ( ![]() Data on patent filings are sourced from Google Patents. Data sources for the scores include the following: (While we recognize that an interest score can be inflated by deliberate efforts to stimulate news and search activity, we believe that each score fairly reflects the extent of discussion and debate about a given trend.) Investment measures the flows of funding from the capital markets into companies linked with the trend. The innovation score combines the patents and research scores the interest score combines the news and search scores. For each measure, we used a defined set of data sources to find occurrences of keywords associated with each of the 15 trends, screened those occurrences for valid mentions of activity, and indexed the resulting numbers of mentions on a 0–1 scoring scale that is relative to the trends studied. ![]() To assess the development of each technology trend, our team collected data on five tangible measures of activity: search engine queries, news publications, patents, research publications, and investment. One new trend, generative AI, made a loud entrance and has already shown potential for transformative business impact. ![]() (For more, please see the sidebar, “Research methodology.”) New and notableĪll of last year’s 14 trends remain on our list, though some experienced accelerating momentum and investment, while others saw a downshift. We provide data on talent supply-and-demand dynamics for the roles of most relevance to each trend. ![]() This year, we added an important new dimension for analysis-talent. Recognizing the long-term nature and interdependence of these trends, we also delve into underlying technologies, uncertainties, and questions surrounding each trend. Our analysis examines quantitative measures of interest, innovation, and investment to gauge the momentum of each trend. While many trends are in the early stages of adoption and scale, executives can use this research to plan ahead by developing an understanding of potential use cases and pinpointing the critical skills needed as they hire or upskill talent to bring these opportunities to fruition. To help executives track the latest developments, the McKinsey Technology Council has once again identified and interpreted the most significant technology trends unfolding today. Generative AI deserves much of the credit for ushering in this revival, but it stands as just one of many advances on the horizon that could drive sustainable, inclusive growth and solve complex global challenges. McKinsey Technology Trends Outlook 2023 (81 pages)Īfter a tumultuous 2022 for technology investment and talent, the first half of 2023 has seen a resurgence of enthusiasm about technology’s potential to catalyze progress in business and society. ![]()
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